The 30% Internet Gorilla Tax

I’ve written before about powerful advantages Google, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook have in the software industry.  These four companies control major parts of the ecosystem, take out upstarts when they get too big, corner talent markets in key areas, and enjoy a ~30% “tax” (directly or indirectly) across most other software companies.

I first noted this nearly 5 years ago, but more recently, some of the Internet thought leaders have written about the theme.  For example, Fred Wilson wrote:

Google, Facebook, and to a lesser extent Apple and Amazon will be seen as monopolists by government and individuals in the US (as they have been for years outside the US). Things like the fake news crisis will make clear to everyone how reliant we have become on these tech powerhouses and there will be a backlash. …

And, Sam Altman wrote in the YC Annual Letter:

Companies like Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple, and Microsoft have powerful advantages that are still not fully understood by most founders and investors. I expect that they will continue to do a lot of things well, have significant data and computation advantages, be able to attract a large percentage of the most talented engineers, and aggressively buy companies that get off to promising starts. This trend is unlikely to reverse without antitrust action, and I suggest people carefully consider its implications for startups. …

(Emphases added)

Now, Snap(chat) has revealed they’ve committed $3b to Google and Amazon over the next five years, or about $600m/year.  When we line that up with revenue estimates ($5.7b over the next three years), we find that the gorillas are getting….. ~30%!