The Internet used to be a lot “flatter”.
Last decade, there really weren’t any major points of control. If you had an idea for a new app or content site, it was pretty much a level playing field, and you could largely control your destiny. The browser was a major point of control, but that was very “horizontal” — few Internet companies worried about bumping into Netscape or Microsoft as a competitor.
Now, the world is quite different.
Google emerged as the first gorilla, becoming the “starting point” for many Web sessions. Most Internet companies are now hugely dependent on Google, directly or indirectly. SEO-dependent companies can find their fortunes change overnight, and Google’s “quality score” manipulations can materially affect an SEM budget (and usually not in the favorable direction).
Facebook is the next gorilla, especially with their recently announced strategy to own the social fabric for the Internet. They’re a major “attention point” for many users, and it’s hard to consider a new Internet idea without a Facebook strategy.
Twitter is a gorilla-wannabe, but it’s not clear if they’ll win (long-term) over Facebook status updates. But the Twitter ecosystem got a splash of cold water with the news of Tweetie’s acquisition. Many app developers are now wondering if they’ll end up competing with Twitter.
And finally, Apple is emerging as a gorilla wildcard. They don’t have leading market share overall, but their mobile devices (iPhone, iPod, and now the iPad) are dominating and defining their categories. The App Store is a huge improvement over the carrier’s closed systems, but it’s hardly open. Apps are approved at Apple’s pleasure, and can be un-approved at any time, without reason or notice.
The Internet’s Darwinian era seems to be over.