I’ve always loved Netflix.  I was a very early subscriber, and we still carry the DVD plan even though we rarely use it (we’ve had some DVDs out for years).   And Reed Hastings has done something that few CEOs and companies have done:  start business A, then successfully build and enter new business B.

But I think they’ve entered a very vulnerable period.   Their streaming deal problems have been well-reported, but there’s a much deeper (and fundamental) issue looming:  they don’t control any user “on-ramp”.

The consumerization of access devices, like tablets, mobile phones, and e-readers gives companies like Apple (and soon, Amazon) immense control.  In some cases, it’s overt (e.g. lack of Flash support, the app approval process, etc.)  In other cases, it’s done by controlling the preferred user experience:  given the new subscription support in iOS 5, why would users want to do subscriptions any other way?

It will be increasingly easy (and cheap) to watch movies on Apple and Amazon devices, gradually squeezing Netflix out of the party.