I think Microsoft’s dominance has peaked.
They’re struggling on many fronts: Vista an uninspired product with more technology & features for copyright holders (e.g. DRM) than for users. Microsoft’s had to provide more life for Windows XP, and to offer downgrade options from Vista. They haven’t been able to translate desktop dominance into any Internet dominance. Adobe’s Flash is the platform of choice for rich Web apps.
The flat stock price is making it harder to buy and retain top talent. Mature, high-quality, low-cost, open source stacks are winning in the server room. Viable alternatives to the Office cash cow are becoming available. The hardware market can’t tolerate Microsoft’s OEM bundling prices, when systems cost 80% less than they did a decade ago.
Apple is coming on strong, and inspiring customers with new products and new ideas — when was the last time Microsoft did that?
But, I don’t think Microsoft will disappear. They’ll join the IBM club (or worse, the Sun club), as a once-dominant company that’s no longer a leader.
Agree. But in reference to Sun (now: ticker JAVA) where does that leave applications built on Java?
WRT Java apps, I think they’re independent issues. Java (generally) runs well on non-Microsoft platforms, and those platforms will work just fine as Microsoft’s share flattens or drops.