I just read a blog post about a developer with a #1 iPhone app that quit his day job.
The “indie developer” market seems alive and well (and not just for iPhone apps). If you have talent and an SDK, you can give it a shot. If you’re lucky, you can make a good living. Software applications have become an expressive art like novels, paintings, music, and screen plays.
The downside is it’s getting very crowded because there aren’t barriers: the only capital required is time. There’s the joke about every waiter in LA being an asipiring actor; I feel like every developer I know is writing an iPhone/Android app.
Finally, a hit app does not make a sustainable business. Very few writers are able to break out and build a sustainable franchise (e.g. Tom Clancy, JK Rowling).
I think the same will be true for indie developers.
Perhaps indie developers will be like indie artists when it comes to making money as well. Perhaps many of them will simply not care about money that much and will be content just from the joys of creation/expression.
thats not a joke -every waiter in l.a. *IS* an aspiring actor or writer or director or musician or whatever