Netflix Player, after a few months

We’ve had a Netflix Player/Roku set top box now for a few months, and we’ve used it quite a bit.

The short review:  a decent product execution, but with very limited video content. Netflix’s “watch instantly” offerings mostly consists of TV content and older movies.  It’s rare that you find recent, top-quality movies.  Our kids quickly ran out of new things to watch.

The physical product is very nice and compact (roughly the size of a 1″ stack of CD cases).  It has no buttons, and only a power indicator on the front.  The remote control is very straightforward with a small number of buttons, and the on-screen menus are simple and easy to understand.  Setup and configuration was very easy, and the box has Wifi so you don’t need a wired connection.

We do wish fast forward worked differently.  It’s not like a Tivo — instead, it scrolls through a set of small video still frames.  When you hit “play”, the box takes a few seconds to rebuffer and resume from the new point.  Fortunately, Netflix’s video content doesn’t have ads that need to be skipped.

Also, videos can only be added to your viewing queue through Netflix’s Web interface — you can’t choose new videos through the box itself.  This is much more useful than our cable company’s on-screen interface for selecting an on-demand movie, and we’ve found it helpful to limit what our kids can watch (while still letting them choose from a list of options).  However, if you sit down at your TV to watch something new, you’ll need to go find your PC to add the movie to your queue.

Bottom line:  for $100, we’d probably get one again, but we’re really hoping that Netflix brings more (and better) content on-line.

Google’s power position

It’s still unbelievable how powerful Google continues to be.  If you need to turn on meaningful traffic volume for a Web site, they’re the only game.  And properties that depend on Google for a majority of traffic have a number of risk exposures.

For SEO (organic) traffic, there’s always a chance Google changes the search ranking rules.  Stories abound about companies ranked #3 (for some keyword) waking up some morning to find themselves ranked #11 and traffic down 80%.  Google is continually battling search engine spam, and even if you have quality content, you could easily be collateral damage in an algorithm change. 

I always think of SEO traffic as “bonus icing” — great if you can get it, but don’t depend on it.

For SEM (paid keyword) traffic, there are so many ways Google can (and does) manipulate the system to their advantage.  AdWords is like playing poker, but with the house as one of the players, and with some of the rules marked “secret”.   If you don’t believe me, read about Google’s infamous “quality score“, and then read this story about a company that hit the wall when Google changed the rules.

For SEM, I always assume:  (a) you can’t afford to build your site entirely with paid traffic — you have to find other sources, (b) CPC prices trend up over time, not down, and (c) prices can change quickly.  

Finally! Google’s own Web browser

It’s about time — Google’s shipping their own Web browser (Chrome).  

This is an extremely interesting development, and I’m surprised it’s taken this long to happen.  I’ve only played with Chrome only briefly so far, but it’s got some interesting features, reminding us there’s still room for innovation in browsers.

Those pushing the limits wth Web apps are always running into annoying browser limitations & bugs.   It’s even worse in a relatively fragmented browser market (FireFox in different versions, IE, Safari, Opera, etc.), each with slightly different capabilities.  This move gives Google end-to-end control over their destiny. 

Chrome is going to have to earn it’s chops in the market to get share, but the (potential) Google apps tie-in is what’s most intersting.  Google’s in a much stronger position than Microsoft was with IE — if/when the existing Google apps run better in Chrome, people will switch. 

Understanding what makes venture critters tick: how they make money

Every entrepreneur should read Fred Wilson’s recent post on the economics of venture funds.

Understanding how VCs make money goes a long way to explaining VC behavior.  Fred’s post clearly shows the two mechanisms (management fees and carried interest) in the context of showing the gap between gross and net venture fund returns.

Also see my related post:  How Venture Capitalists Make Money

Inventing the Xerox machine

If you like technology entrepreneurship stories, you’ll love Copies in Seconds by David Owen.  I just finished it and almost literally, could not put it down.

It’s about Chester Carlson, the inventor of the copy machine.  It’s easy to read, and is full if interesting technology and business details without being boring.  The introduction of the legendary 914 copier, and the story of rapid, out-of-control growth (in the early 60s) should sound familiar to any Internet entrepreneur.

It’s full of hilarious and quirky details, like the time an FTC official complained about over-representing the product’s capabilities (specficially, the ability to copy onto plain paper) and they responded by sending him back his letter copied onto a brown paper bag.  Or how the salesmen would show the copy speed by copying a stopwatch.

Great book, highly recommended.

Amusing Third-Order Implication of the Global Market

I got this email this morning from Advanced Circuits (I fiddle with electronics stuff in my “spare time”, and one of these days I’ll do a custom PCB):

For our Printed Circuit Board customers using Chinese vendors, please be aware of the following air quality policy announcement from Chinese authorities:

In preparation for the Olympics, China has announced a factory shutdown for 9 weeks to clear smog and improve air quality in a 200 kilometer radius of Beijing. The shutdown begins July 17th and will extend until September 20th. Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shandong provinces are affected by the shutdown.

If air quality does not improve before the start of the Olympics, there may be an expansion of the shutdown. There are concerns there could also be a bottleneck at two main ports.

All this to say that if you have a PCB vendor in the affected area, we are available to take care of your printed circuit board requirements. In addition to our large fabrication facility here in Aurora, we also have offshore partners in other non-affected countries that are available to handle the larger volumes.

We are currently offering “Half Time” Specials (142 and 244), and we will turn your board orders in half the time at no extra cost. If you have expedited needs, we specialize in quick turns and can even supply boards over the weekend, if required.

It was pretty amusing to see the third and fourth-order global implications of the Olympics in China.

Maybe it’s a Knee-walled Garden now

There’s a lot of chatter on the iPhone SDK mailing list about Apple’s approval process for the app store.  And Bijan Sabet writes:

I’ve been hearing more and more about apps that are still waiting for approval mode from apple. Some of those developers are friends of mine. These apps are somewhat competitive with iTunes I guess. Maybe that is the reason for the hold up. Or maybe it’s because apple is simply swamped.

(From Say it Ain’t So)

The mobile/wireless community has referred to on-device content and apps as a “walled garden“, because of the constraints and restrictions imposed by the old-line carriers.  The iPhone raised everyone’s hopes that the walls were coming down.

However, the process and criteria for getting App store approval from Apple is still unclear. Will Apple approve apps that are competitive with it’s own apps and businesses? Will they approve free apps that compete with paid apps (where Apple gets a rev share)?

Maybe the wall is still around the garden, but it’s now a knee wall.

Wireless provider wake-up call

I can only hope that the iPhone app store is wildly successful, and serves as a wakeup call to the old-school wireless providers.  I’m tired of being stuck with the hardware, firmware, applications, and features that Verizon dictates.

Have you ever looked at developing for BREW and getting “on deck” with Verizon?  What a disaster.

Internet and TV convergence, NOT!

If you equate money and brains, Mark Cuban should be a pretty smart guy.  But then he writes this:

Rather than Hulu sending its video directly across the net to your PC, and let the end user figure out how to watch and distribute from there, it should send it to a box hosted by your cable/telco and possibly even satellite provider, which then transcodes the video and places it on the existing TV distribution system and sends it across a channel branded with your name and the name of the file to your TV.

From:  The Way to Save Internet Video

(Please ignore the suggestion that Internet video needs “saving”).

Video is just another data stream, and there’s absolutely no reason why this data stream needs or deserves a specialized distribution infrastructure.  Historically, it’s had a specialized infrastructure because analog video distribution pre-dated the Internet.  That arrangement will continue for a  while, because of entrenched vested interests in doing things the “old way”.

When the core infrastructure and last-mile bandwidth became sufficiently fast, the Internet happily absorbed the task of audio (MP3) distribution.  Accordingly, CD sales declined and on-line sales of audio content rose (and iTunes is now the #1 music retailer).

As bandwidths continue to increase, the exact same thing is happening right now with standard definition (SD)  video, and will happen soon with high definition video.

Maybe there isn’t a killer app for the iPhone

What’s the killer app for the iPhone?  Most hardware platforms have had one:  the app so great you go buy the hardware just to get it.   But it occurred to me in a recent conversation:  there might not be a killer app for the iPhone (and it might not need one).

With the App Store, Apple’s done the expected exceptional job of app distribution, including enabling small dollar payments.  Can you name another mainstream system where you can seamlessly buy, install, and run $1 apps?  It’s no surprise the first batch of apps are “narrow apps”, that do one specific thing, (in most cases) do that thing well, and don’t cost much.

When combined with Springboard’s ability to customize the launch screen icon layout, it’s entirely possible that the “killer app” for each user is not a single distinct application, but a personalized selection of a dozen or so narrow apps chosen by that user.

In other words, the killer app for each user is a sort of “app mix tape”.