Don’t Regulate, Bound Corporate Liability Limitations

Recent discussions about bailouts and regulations have got me thinking.

Corporations enable capitalism.  The main feature is limited liability, which limits owner’s losses to their original investment and employee’s to losing their jobs.  In other words, if a corporation has obligations it can’t fulfill, the owners (stockholders) and employees aren’t on the hook.  This feature lets investors risk capital without worrying about losing their homes.

Moreover, this liability limitation is unbounded — if a corporation racks up $1 or $100 trillion of obligations, a bankruptcy cleans it up and everyone walks away.  Unfortunately, as we’re learning, US and world economy does not have an infinite capacity to absorb losses.  When corporations amass obligations so large and far-reaching (e.g. AIG, LTCM, etc.), we can’t (collectively) afford to let them fail.

Now, we’re debating regulations to prevent this from happening again.  Regulation has a number of problems, including the ability of free markets finding a way to route around, inventing ever complex financial structures, and making money in unregulated ways.  Regulation may prevent this crisis from happening again, but won’t prevent the next one.

There is an entirely different way to address this, by targeting the root problem.  What if some personal liability phased in for cases of huge, “off the charts” liability?  In other words, if your corporation amasses obligations so large that bankruptcy would materially affect the US economy, you might not be able to keep your houses and bonuses.

I guarantee that a threat of the smallest personal liability will cause a whole lot of self-regulation.  The art would be to do it in a way that it only applies to the extreme 0.01% of cases, and untended consequences (e.g. the problems with Sarbox) are minimized.  It may be possible to make this work.

It’s a slightly crazy idea, but not entirely crazy.

Idea: “Public Computer” Mode for Browsers

With the proliferation of public computers (e.g. libraries, hotel business center, etc.), we need a browser with a lockable “public computer” mode, unlockable only by the computer administrator.

In this mode, no passwords are stored, and auto-complete for form fields is turned off (or quickly expired).  Any open windows would close automatically after some period of inactivity, and the browsing history is quickly expired.

Also, the browser would send this mode information in all Web requests (in an HTTP header), so apps could modify their behavior accordingly.  For example, a Web app might NOT offer the option to “stay logged in” when using a public computer, and/or might aggressively time out an inactive session.

I’m sure someone’s thought about this — is this a new idea?

The Venture Capital Shakeout

The venture capital business is in the middle of a shakeout.

For too long, venture’s been over-funded and over-staffed with homogeneity:  the same kinds of partners, operating with the same fund model, looking at the same investments, in the same markets.  It took an economic meltdown for LPs to finally realize they were putting money into an asset class that wasn’t generating a return commensurate with the risk.

Because of the typical 10-year agreement terms in venture partnerships, everything happens in slow-motion.  But there’s some early evidence things are breaking up:

  • Venture firms cutting back on partners, or moving some partners to “venture” partners
  • Top-tier partnerships having a hard time raising new funds (and coming in below target), and 2nd-3rd tier partnerships having an impossible time
  • LPs missing capital calls (a very big deal)

Partnerships getting hit the hardest:  those without some recent distributions (some are rumored to have nothing in the past 7-9 years!), those with no previous funds beating T-bill IRRs (or even showing a positive return), and those with heavy university endowment LPs (which have gotten slammed).

I don’t wish ill-will on any of my venture friends, but I think this is good for everyone in the long run:  we’re flushing out a broken, over-capitalized, me-too industry.  Hopefully we’ll see some innovative fund models, looking at new markets, and funding companies in new ways.

Twitter and Facebook

Why do we need Twitter and Facebook?  (esp. after Facebook’s redesign, making it much more Twitter-like)

One reason:  tweets are 100% public, Facebook status updates are (generally) not.

As such, the collective tweet-stream is a great source of near-real-time information.  Lately, I find myself searching more than tweeting, mostly to find current info or if others are sharing my current problem (e.g. “EC2 down”).  When I do tweet, I’m tweeting more to a search result audience (e.g. “lots of spam getting throug gmail”) than to my immediate friends.  But I’m not sure this is typical behavior.

Twitter really wants to be a feature on Facebook.  I think they (Facebook) could pull this off if they came up with a manageable way to deal with privacy scopes:  100% public, semi-private, etc.

Analytics-Driven UI Design

I thought Douglas Bowman’s recent post about his departure from Google was interesting.  As a visual designer, he felt Google’s data-driven culture was “paralyzing the company” and “preventing it from making any daring design decisions”.

Ten years ago (before I blogged, and therefore could prove this claim), I opined the future of user interface design would be a combination of visual design and direct marketing analytics.  (At the time, the DM folks were the ones that figured out the yellow envelope worked better than orange, etc. — the precursor to modern Web analytics).

The combination is key:  visual design without considering usage data is just flying blind.

Analytics without any design work doesn’t yield innovations & breakthroughs.  Think of it this way:  no amount of analysis of a farmer’s use of his horse and plow is going to get a design for a tractor.

Google’s clearly doing something right, but maybe they’ve taken analytics-driven design to the extreme?

Investing vs Speculating

Brad Feld’s recent blog post on “Investment vs Speculation” is recommended reading for every entrepreneur.

Brad’s writing as an investor always learning now ways on how to invest $10000, but the points apply to entrepreneurs working on new opportunities.

Is your idea an “investment”:  do you see an opening to create real value?  Or are you speculating, and betting that someone will acquire the future business for more than the financials suggest it is worth?

GPS Feature Wish List

I’m a huge GPS fan, and have wondered how I got through two decades of driving without electronic navigation help.

Recently, the innovation rate in navigation applications seems slow.  TomTom raised the bar a few years back, but nearly everyone’s caught up:   most units are quite good.

I’m wishing someone would “iphone” this market, with a great design that delivers a new level of innovation and blows everyone else away.  To that end, I’ve started collecting design elements and features I’d love to see, on this Wiki page.

Please feel free to comment and contribute.

When Disruptive Value is Sponged up by the Incumbents

Charles Teague and I were riffiing today on entrepreneurial opportunities around the iPhone, location-based services, and other areas.   A recurring discussion theme was:  sometimes technology disruptions don’t lead to NewCo opportunities.  Why?

Consider the hype around Web Services from years ago.  There were dozens (perhaps hundreds) of companies funded, but today, can you name a single durable, sustainable, profitable, value-creating Web Services company?

Web Services is clearly an important disruptive technology, but the value created was entirely absorbed by existing companies:  Amazon, Google, eBay, Yahoo, etc. and the hundreds/thousands of other Internet technology companies.  In other words, it wasn’t disruptive enough.

True disruption comes when a new technology is so different, existing companies have difficulty processing it, and that “processing delay” lets a NewCo move in.  The Internet was the last major example:  Amazon was off to the races while Barnes and Noble was still parsing the implications.

Many disruptions really aren’t truly disruptive.  Take location-based services — it seems clear that most of the benefit is going to be absorbed by existing apps and companies.  It’s not to say that location-based services can’t be a component of a successful app, but I have a hard time believing that the location-based companies (e.g. Loopt, Where.com, etc.) will be successful without major strategy changes.

Notebook time

I sometimes use JDarkroom for writing.  It blanks out the screen, giving only monospaced text, letting you focus on words (not formatting, the clock, the weather, email, surfing, or blog reading).

But when I need to think, turning off the computer entirely and writing on paper seems to work best (I like the large squared Moleskine notebooks).  It goes everywhere, boots instantly, and never crashes.  Because my writing bandwidth is much lower than my typing bandwidth, I focus more on thoughts than words.

For creative thinking, I also find it helps to shake up my surroundings.  I like leaving the office and going to a restaurant, coffee shop, library, museum, etc.  I’ve even made excellent “think time” out of waiting at the dr’s office, waiting to pick up the car with new tires, etc.

Try scheduling some notebook time.

“More turning to Web TV”

I got a big chuckle out of this article from CNN, about consumers canceling cable service and turning to the Internet for TV.

The analyst/pundit comments reminded me of the Internet naysayers from the mid 90s:

The brutal economy may motivate some consumers, like the Wynsmas, to switch to Web-based TV, but it won’t necessarily hurt the cable or satellite TV business, which has historically been recession-proof.

Yes, but this is the first time in history that consumers have a viable alternative to satellite and cable TV.  And, the alternative happens to be entirely on-demand.

And:

“The cable companies have invested billions of dollars to expand the footprint and reach of their services, and it will require a similar investment by the [Internet Protocol Television] players to catch up,” said Lewis, the technology consultant.

Not really:  cable companies spent billions building infrastructure, both for broadband/IP and for proprietary cable distribution.  Since IP is open access (in theory), the IP TV player don’t need to duplicate that investment — they can just ride on the back of it.