We all know folks that made money on Bubble 1.0 that shouldn’t have and vice versa. The point: no matter what you do, sometimes you’re just lucky (or not).
Startups are calculated risks. Entrepreneurs work hard to manage all of the factors for success, but you can’t manage everything. Sometimes the low-probability, high-impact “perfect storm” happens and wipes things out. Or sometimes, the stars align in surprising ways and everything takes off.
The key, I think, is to be as relaxed as possible about it. Sometimes you do everything exactly right and it still doesn’t work out. The trouble starts when the anxiety of failure starts to creep in. When that happens, remember, it will all be OK: your spouse will still love you, and your friends will still call you back.
A really wise old guy named Payne once told me, “The startups that succeed are the ones that live long enough to figure out what is the business and model that actually works.”
Chance favors the prepared mind!